143
FXUS62 KCAE 271804
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WET, COOL, AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT.
WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, LIKELY
TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN,
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
50S FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAINS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. WITH REINFORCING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, THE WEDGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR
TO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING RAIN EARLY,
ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MOVE IN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOWS
LIKELY ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND BE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPS WITH AN INCREASE IN PWATS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GEFS INDICATE A 60-70% PROBABILITY OF PWATS
GREATER THAN AN INCH ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN
A BIT BASED ON GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. AS A RESULT, WHILE WINDS LIKELY
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY, THE WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH
500MB HEIGHTS ON THE NAEFS INDICATING BELOW THE 2.5 PERCENTILE. AS A
RESULT, WHILE THE WEDGE WILL BE SCATTERED OUT BY THE SYSTEM THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH MORE SUN. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GEFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES GO FROM
AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL TO ONE STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL AS TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUE
TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL. WORTH MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST LATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE SURFACE BUT PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS....
ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN IFR DUE TO CEILINGS AROUND 1000
FEET. CLOUD BASES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FEET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVING SAID THAT, GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO OPTED TO PLACE THEM IN THE FORECAST AFTER
09Z TUESDAY. THIS WEATHER SETUP IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO BREAK DOWN
AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES AND
THERE IS A CONCERN FOR LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND PERHAPS PART OF WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG. CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY
IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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