872
FXUS62 KCAE 280046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
846 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING NOW FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE STRONG WEDGE SETUP CONTINUES WITH ASSOCIATED INVERSION AND
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT OVERRUNNING. THE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TRANSVERSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE SOME STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT IS NOW DEVELOPING A
WEAK COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH. AS THIS SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, THE AXIS OF STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND OUR PWAT'S WILL
GENERALLY FALL FROM AROUND 1.5" TO 1.0" BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE WEDGE
AND INVERSION, THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
WANE AND WE WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT ISENTROPIC SHOWERS-DRIZZLE.
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS WON'T BUDGE FROM THE LOW 50'S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAINS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG
THE EAST COAST. WITH REINFORCING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW,
THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING
RAIN EARLY, ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MOVE IN
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD, INDICATED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVING OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOWS LIKELY ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES.
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND BE
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS WITH AN INCREASE IN PWATS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GEFS INDICATE A 60-70%
PROBABILITY OF PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH ONCE AGAIN. THE SYSTEM
HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT BASED ON GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. AS A
RESULT, WHILE WINDS LIKELY SHIFT MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY,
THE WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE BUT POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO
SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE LONG TERM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS ON THE NAEFS INDICATING BELOW THE 2.5
PERCENTILE. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE WEDGE WILL BE SCATTERED OUT
BY THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY, ALBEIT WITH
MORE SUN. BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT GEFS
500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES GO FROM AROUND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL TO ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL AS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO MODERATE CLOSER TO
NORMAL. WORTH MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LATE THIS WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
PERIODIC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
WIDESPREAD COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT UNDERWAY WITH GENERALLY IFR
CIGS AT TERMINALS. THE MORE STEADY RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z. VSBYS ARE LESS CERTAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT VSBYS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED A BIT
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THINK THEY SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS PART OF WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG. CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE LATE
IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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