258
FXUS62 KCAE 280610
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR.
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS. THIS HAS LED TO MAINLY
AVIATION CONCERNS, WITH SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY HELP TO
WEAKEN SHOWERS JUST A BIT THIS MORNING. THAT SAID, PW VALUES
ARE STILL LIKELY HOLDING STEADY AT JUST OVER 1".
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE WEDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
EJECTS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVERHEAD, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SC/NC BORDER. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS SETUP JUSTIFIES ANOTHER OVERCAST
DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-26
CORRIDOR. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS
SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OUT, BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAY STILL GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S TODAY,
WITH READINGS VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE
LIMITED WITH LOW CLOUDS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOL AND BREEZY WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, AND STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY.
NAEFS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW THE
FIRST PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BRING NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, ENTRENCHING THE WEDGE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD, A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND BECOME BREEZY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT LOOK TO BE
JUST SHY OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS POINT. SOME MORE
FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT THE FRONT AS IT PASSES CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD
AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SCOURING OUT OF THE WEDGE, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
CLOUD COVER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN, CREATING
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A MODERATE CHANCE (40-
50%) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH FROM THE WEST, SO A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED CLEARING AND AN
UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES, WE'LL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. AS A RESULT,
DAYTIME TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE SOME, BUT LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE VERY LOW (<10%)
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHTS REMAIN LIKELY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AT THE END OF THE WEEK STILL ON THE
TABLE. LOOKING AT VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE SPREADS,
THE CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH PERIODIC VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIDESPREAD COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY, WITH CIG
AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY IFR CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. SCT -SHRA AND -DZ MAY ALSO LIMIT VSBYS MUCH OF THIS
MORNING. CONTINUED NELY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN WINDS
SHIFT A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 28/12Z. WINDSPEEDS AND GUSTS
DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HOLD A NELY DIRECTION. -SHRA SHOULD
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS,
BUT CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IFR OR BRIEFLY LIFR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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