245
FXUS62 KCAE 281828
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
228 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH CONTINUED COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S, COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER OUTSIDE. RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOL AND BREEZY WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE WEDGE
SLOWLY ERODES DURING THE DAY, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. AS A
RESULT, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE A
BIT OF WARMING, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY LIMITING AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
WEDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL PREVENT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE AREA AS
EVEN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF THE BLEND SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
DESTABILIZATION.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA,
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CLEARER SKIES. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATED AROUND 50-60%
PROBABILITY OF MAX GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. AS A RESULT, A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WITH GEFS 500MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES, MODERATING CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO END THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
MODERATES HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL, IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DETERMINISTIC BLEND IS CLOSER
TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAY
TREND LOWER. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH BECOMES AND A RESULT, THE TIMING OF ITS
PROGRESSION BUT GENERALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AT THE LEAST, SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FALL FURTHER TONIGHT....
COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BEING REPORTED AND A FEW SITES SHOWING
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY DRIZZLE. SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND ARE BREEZY AT TIMES. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO REMAIN AROUND LOW MVFR LEVELS, LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER TONIGHT.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE ONGOING WEDGE EVENT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH THIS IS
NOT YET NOTED IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS MAY CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
STRONG. CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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