848
FXUS62 KCAE 290034
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
834 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDGE CONDITIONS REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA, DESPITE SOME
RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST DRY ADVECTION ALOFT BEHIND A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 500-250MB. EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE BELOW 500MB, DRIVING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
VERY WELL ESTABLISHED WEDGE AND ASSOCIATED INVERSION. WHILE
PWAT'S HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY DUE TO DRY ADVECTION ALOFT, PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE BELOW 500MB TO FORCE SOME
CONSISTENT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN THE WEDGE AS PWAT'S
ARE STILL AROUND 1.0". THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS
SETUP OVERNIGHT AND SOME DIURNAL COOLING, ALBEIT VERY MINIMAL,
WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A PROPER WEDGE
LIKE THIS, TEMPS WON'T MOVE MUCH AND LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY
DROP A COUPLE DEGREES, TO AROUND 50 OR THE UPPER 40'S IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOL AND BREEZY WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY.
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE WEDGE
SLOWLY ERODES DURING THE DAY, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED. AS A
RESULT, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AS LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE A
BIT OF WARMING, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY LIMITING AMOUNTS. WHILE THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
WEDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL PREVENT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE AREA AS
EVEN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF THE BLEND SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
DESTABILIZATION.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A DEEP TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA,
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CLEARER SKIES. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATED AROUND 50-60%
PROBABILITY OF MAX GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH. AS A RESULT, A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WITH GEFS 500MB HEIGHTS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES, MODERATING CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO END THE
WEEK, ALTHOUGH BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED. BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT
MODERATES HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US LEADING
TO CLEARING SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL, IT WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
ADVISORIES THAT MAY BE NEEDED AS THE DETERMINISTIC BLEND IS CLOSER
TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND MAY
TREND LOWER. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW
AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH BECOMES AND A RESULT, THE TIMING OF ITS
PROGRESSION BUT GENERALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND
AT THE LEAST, SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST WITH STRONG COLD AIR
DAMMING EVENT ONGOING.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE THE REGION WITH SOME
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BUT A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS KEEPING
THE COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND 10 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
CHANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WEDGE
HOLDS AND CIGS REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 FT, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIFR CIGS DURING THE 10Z-15Z
TIME FRAME. VSBYS AGAIN ARE TRICKY AND COULD RANGE BETWEEN P6SM
AND 2SM DEPENDING ON PATCHY DRIZZLE BUT HAVE OPTED FOR
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALL BUT AGS/DNL.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY TO EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND THIS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE WEDGE A BIT AT
AGS/DNL/OGB WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT CAE/CUB. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STRONGER WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BUT THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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