473
FXUS62 KCAE 290655
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS
OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUING WEDGE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR.
DEEPENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY TODAY. WEDGE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, FOLLOWED
BY A FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF TODAY SHOULD JUST FEATURE SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN,
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING DESPITE THE
OVERCAST. HIGHS TODAY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH A FEW
SOUTHERN OR EASTERN LOCALES COULD TOUCH THE LOW 60S FOR A SHORT
TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR WITH PW VALUES LESS THAN 1" MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DIP INTO THE MID 40S WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
DESPITE THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY, UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE
AREA, LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA, TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, BREEZY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. LATEST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MODERATE CHANCE (50-60%)
OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH OR GREATER. SO, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT TEMPS DROPPING
ENOUGH FOR ANY FROST.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNDERNEATH BROAD TROUGHINESS, LEADING TO TRANQUIL AND COOL
WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST PUTS LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. HOWEVER, THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF NBM
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DROP BELOW THAT MARK,
ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN SOME AREAS
IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
- UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER BROAD TROUGHINESS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON
THE COOLER SIDE, BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MODERATE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THEN WILDLY DIFFERENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING AND EVOLVING TO START NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AT THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT AS
MENTIONED, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST WITH STRONG COLD AIR
DAMMING CONTINUING TODAY.
OVERCAST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH CIGS REMAINING
GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT MSL. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN VSBY
REDUCTIONS, BUT THEY MAY RANGE BETWEEN P6SM AND 2SM DEPENDING ON
PRECIP. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA AND -DZ THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOWER AT AGS/DNL/OGB. BRIEF LIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHRA. NELY TO SELY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH. SOME
STRONGER -SHRA AND SFC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A PASSING FRONT LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WITH SHIFTING SLY TO SWLY.
WEDGE CONDITIONS THEN START TO BREAK UP WITH IMPROVING VSBYS AND
INCREASING CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT AGS/DNL/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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