111
FXUS62 KCAE 291804
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AHEAD OF A FRONT THIS
EVENING.
- SOME GUSTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS CHUGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SURFACE FLOW IS STEADILY BACKING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS
FINALLY LETTING UP SOMEWHAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODIC
DRIZZLE IS STILL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
CSRA LATER THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 6-8PM WITH SOME ASSOCIATED GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST
QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS SURFACE
STABILITY WILL REMAIN STRONG THANKS TO THE DECAYING WEDGE. THE HREF
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTS A NEAR ISOTHERMAL LAYER THROUGH ROUGHLY 900MB
BUT THEN SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850MB. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT THE WARM-MOIST ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE,
WHICH IS WHAT THE HREF CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYS. 850MB FLOW DOES
STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LINE
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA, AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THIS COULD
BRIEFLY HELP SOME OF THE SHOWERS BECOMES MORE SURFACE BASED,
INCREASING SOME WIND GUSTS THANKS TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND 850MB
FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOT AS COOL ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS, THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FA. THERE SHOULD BE DECREASING CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL, THOUGH LIKELY STILL
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT ONE MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW IF TRENDS CONTINUE. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
CLEAR AT NIGHT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP PRECLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS WITH
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE FA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARM BUT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS LANCASTER, FAIRFIELD, NEWBERRY,
AND SALUDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BUT COULD IN THE MID-30S IN THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SUNNY AND DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST SUNDAY. AN OVERALL SUNNY
AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. BY SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, APPROACHING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON WHAT
IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE FROM THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BUT
THAT WILL BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
BACK IN TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
CAD CONTINUES TO IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES WITH IFR CIGS
CONTINUING; VSBY HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE A STRONG FRONT ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO AGS-DNL BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z, CAE-CUB-OGB BETWEEN 02-05Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS OR SO ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT SOME STRATUS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER
THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE
THURSDAY, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page