714
FXUS62 KCAE 292357
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
757 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET, COOL, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WEDGE CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE AHEAD OF A FRONT THIS
EVENING.
- SOME GUSTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS CHUGGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH. SURFACE FLOW IS STEADILY BACKING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST NOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING IS
BEGINNING TO EASE SOMEWHAT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODIC
DRIZZLE IS STILL LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CSRA
LATER THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 8-10 PM WITH SOME ASSOCIATED GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST
QUICKLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED AS SURFACE STABILITY WILL REMAIN STRONG THANKS TO THE
DECAYING WEDGE. THE HREF CONSISTENTLY DEPICTS A NEAR ISOTHERMAL
LAYER THROUGH ROUGHLY 900MB BUT THEN SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES
ABOVE 850MB. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WARM-MOIST
ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS NOT TERRIBLY
IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE, WHICH IS
WHAT THE HREF CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYS. 850MB FLOW DOES STEADILY
INCREASE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE LINE AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA, AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THIS COULD
BRIEFLY HELP SOME OF THE SHOWERS BECOMES MORE SURFACE BASED,
INCREASING SOME WIND GUSTS THANKS TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND 850MB
FLOW.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NOT AS COOL ON THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS, THOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASING FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FA. THERE SHOULD BE DECREASING CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL, THOUGH LIKELY STILL
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT ONE MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR TOMORROW IF TRENDS CONTINUE. SKIES SHOULD BECOME
CLEAR AT NIGHT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP PRECLUDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS WITH
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE FA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WARM BUT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. AFTER A PLEASANT DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY AT NIGHT DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IN SOME OF OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS LANCASTER, FAIRFIELD, NEWBERRY,
AND SALUDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES BUT COULD IN THE MID-30S IN THE USUAL COLD
SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SUNNY AND DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST SUNDAY. AN OVERALL SUNNY
AND DRY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, THOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. BY SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, APPROACHING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON WHAT
IMPACTS THE REGION WILL SEE FROM THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BUT
THAT WILL BE THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD
BACK IN TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST WITH COLD AIR
DAMMING EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AND GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
CAD CONTINUES TO IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES WITH IFR CIGS
CONTINUING; VSBY HAS IMPROVED SOME AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE A STRONG
FRONT ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. A LINE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO AGS-DNL BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z, CAE-
CUB-OGB BETWEEN 02-05Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO
ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT SOME STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP WITH DEEP MIXING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE
THURSDAY, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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