201
FXUS62 KCAE 300626
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLEARING SKIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRY, BUT
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS OFFICIALLY PUSHED THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDLANDS, WITH JUST THE EASTERN PEE DEE REGION REMAINING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWS HAVE RAPIDLY FALLEN AND THE FRONT HAS
OFFICIALLY SCOURED OUT THE WEDGE CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY
SCATTERING ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITHIN A FEW HOURS. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY SUNRISE AS LOW TO MID 40S ARE
ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS GA. WHILE THESE LIKELY WON'T QUITE
MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BY MORNING, THEY'LL END UP
SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
AS WE GET INTO THE DAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
FOSTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WITH COLD AND DRY ADVECTION KEEPING THINGS BENIGN
OTHERWISE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE COOL, WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. TONIGHT,
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CHILL OUT A BIT EXCEPT OVER THE LAKES.
COLD ADVECTION FAVORS STRONG OVERNIGHT MIXING OVER OUR LARGE
LAKES AS THE LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL MUCH WARMER THAN THE
SURROUNDING AIR IS. WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 25-30
KNOTS, THIS SHOULD FAVOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET
ON AREA LAKES. ASIDE FROM THIS, LOWS SHOULD ONLY END UP IN THE
LOW 40S AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. DESPITE THE UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY, WE'RE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER A BROAD TROUGH FOR THE DAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS
COMBINATION, TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY, SO THE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS MAY NEED AN EXTRA LAYER WHILE STOCKING UP ON
CANDY. POTENTIAL FOR FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND FROST ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THAT SAID, SATURDAY REMAINS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO RETURN SOME DUE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD SHIFTING FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT,
BUT THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALSO RETURN FOR THE EARLY WEEK DUE TO THIS SYSTEM,
WITH WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW MUCH BEING DEPENDENT ON ITS EVOLUTION.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER WHATEVER RAIN WE MAY OR MAY NOT GET.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY ARRIVED AT ALL SITES, WITH THESE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
VERY DRY AIR IS QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA, WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWS AROUND 0.5" PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY CLEARED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, WITH ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
HAZARD THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL
SITES. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT BUT WITH LESS WINDS AND
CLOUDS. VFR IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS LATE
THURSDAY, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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