620
FXUS62 KCAE 061710
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1210 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY, COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
REINFORCING THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF
OUR WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MON/TUES OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A HARD
FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS AFTERNOON: SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT 500MB FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CSRA.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY,
ALTHOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AWAY FROM THE STALLING
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S IN THE CSRA. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS FLOW AT 850/925MB
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OFF THE ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW TO PROVIDE ANY PRECIPITATION BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME PREDAWN
STRATUS/FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO AGAIN BE NEAR
NORMAL BUT LOWS LIKELY TO BE WARMER IN THE CSRA WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD
COVER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 40S IN
THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE.
- CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN THE CSRA.
THE RUN OF WONDERFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATING
EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
FAVOR GOOD WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME SHOWERS POISED TO DEVELOP. THESE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN BENIGN, IF THEY MAKE IT HERE AT ALL. THE FRONT
FORCING THEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA, SO THE EXTENT THAT SHOWERS ACTUALLY DEVELOP IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. GIVEN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST LOOKS
PARTICULARLY ACTIVE AND INTERESTING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A
HARD FREEZE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT FROM FRIDAY
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS OR UPSTATE, BECOMING A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE A PERIOD OF
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ANY SHOWERS OR CONVECTION FOR
MUCH OF SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES, WITH HEIGHT
RISES AND SUBSIDENCE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL BEGIN EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US.
THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG MASS RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IS
FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE JET STREAK
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS, WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHOWING
UP IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LREF PROBABILITIES OF
>500 J/KG OF MUCAPE HAVE BEEN RISING THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND NOW
ENCOMPASS THE AREA WITH PROBABILITIES >60% ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING TO WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE AFORMENTIONED SETUP, WHICH COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF WHAT LOOKS TO BE A MORE INTERESTING THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS, WITH NEARLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND 40-50
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS IS NO SLAM DUNK SETUP ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT
IT, BUT THE THREAT FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CERTAINLY EXISTS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. WILL NOTE THAT I HAVE SEEN SETUPS LIKE THIS
SURPRISE IN THE PAST, SO WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THREAT.
ON SUNDAY, THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY INTERESTING AS WELL. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THE PARENT TROUGH, WHICH MAY AID TO SHIFTING
FORCING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
OR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER WE WILL EVEN BE IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY, SO DON'T WANT TO SPECULATE TOO
MUCH ON ANY EXACT OUTCOMES AT THIS POINT; IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
THAT WE STAY MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH CONTINUE TO SLOW AND FOCUS FURTHER SOUTH, THIS COULD POSE A
SETUP FOR STRONG STORMS AS THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE REALLY
ROBUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING, LEGITIMATELY COULD MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
NOW ONTO THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST THAT THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE
FOR! THE COLD FRONT WILL DEFINITELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, USHERING IN WHAT IS EASILY THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS,
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION YIELDING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES TO OUR EAST. WE WILL
LIKELY NEED AT LEAST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AS THE SIGNAL FOR STRONG
WINDS IS STRONG, INCLUDING A HIGH WIND GUST EFI ACROSS THE AREA AND
A NON-ZERO SHIFT OF TAILS IN THAT SAME PIECE OF GUIDANCE. SPEAKING
OF THIS, THE MODEL SUPPORT FOR A HARD FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES
TO GROW. PROBABILITY FOR LOW <28F TUESDAY MORNING IS 70%+ FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NBM. GEFS/ECM PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 10F BELOW NORMAL ARE 100% ON
TUESDAY MORNING. ECM EFI >0.8 FOR COLD TEMPS, WITH A POSITIVE SHIFT
OF TAILS. BOTTOM LINE, TEMPS LOOK VERY COLD ON MONDAY NIGHT. WE
STILL NEED TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AS THAT WILL DICTATE JUST HOW COLD WE ACTUALLY GET. WE
WON'T HAVE CALM WINDS ALL NIGHT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS COULD
GET CALM (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA) AFTER 4A OR
5A ON TUESDAY. IF WE SEE WINDS CALM EARLIER THAN THAT, WE MAY VERY
WELL MAKE A RUN AT SOME RECORD LOWS TUESDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS OR LOW 20S, FOSTERING VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE RECORD LOW FOR TUESDAY IN COLUMBIA IS 26F
AND IN AUGUST IT IS 24F. IT'LL BE TOUGH TO GET TO EITHER OF THESE
BUT IT IS DEFINITELY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. PREPARE FOR A
HARD FREEZE NOW IF YOU HAVE ANY STAKES AT ALL IN VEGETATION OR
OUTDOOR PLANTS! THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THEN POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
STRATUS/FOG FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PROVIDE FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 925MB BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
PROMOTES MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS/FOG CONCERNS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
INTO MID MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. SREF CIG PROBABILITIES OF
MVFR ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT WITH IFR CIG PROBS AROUND 20-30% IN THE
CSRA. HRRR ALSO SHOWS CIG RESTRICTIONS BUT MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. WILL INCLUDE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FAVORING AGS/DNL 09Z-13Z. OTHERWISE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AND REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY FRIDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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