929
FXUS62 KCAE 071742
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WELL- ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE STORMS
TONIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS REALLY RAMPED UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS
HAVE GENERALLY RISEN FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEARING THE WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY SLOWLY WORK TOWARD THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FORCING WITH PWAT'S REACHING
NEAR 1.30" OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND FRONT APPROACH OVERNIGHT, MODELED
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5-7 C/KM) ON
TOP OF A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AROUND 850-900MB. THIS SETUP SHOWS
MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DUE TO THIS, MAJORITY OF CAM'S
DEPICT A LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING
OVERNIGHT, BUT SLOWLY WANING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FA WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS PULLING NORTH OF
THE AREA. OVERALL, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY, BUT THE ELEVATED NATURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE HAZARDS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY.
- CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
- WARM BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MAJOR COLD
FRONT.
AN INTERESTING, WARM, AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD IS ON TAP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY, AND WILL BE IN FULL SWING EARLY ON SATURDAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY, LIKELY
DECAYING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT THE AFTERNOON BUT
CUMULUS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN AS WE'LL BE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP
INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETUP FOR A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME, WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS, THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE OVERALL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY, WIND FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE INGREDIENTS, IN ADDITION TO A DIFFUSE BUT NOTABLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, IN THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GETTING CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY QUESTION OF THIS
SETUP. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS
INTRODUCING A WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THIS FORCING REGIME, DECENT MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN KEEPING DETRIMENTAL ENTRAINMENT
POTENTIALLY AT BAY. LATEST RRFS, MPAS, AND RAP GUIDANCE ALL
POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE WOULD BE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT AS AN
ARROW, WITH SPLITTING STORMS & HAIL FAVORED IN THIS REGIME. ADD
IN LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND 70+ KNOTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND
YOU HAVE A SETUP FOR SOME HAILERS. IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY
MEANS BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS I
HAVE SEEN SETUPS LIKE THIS SURPRISE AT TIMES.
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY
TAPER OFF DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ONE INTERESTING
FEATURE OF THIS INITIAL WAVE IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IT HELPING SHIFT SURFACE 60F+ DEWPOINTS TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT SUNDAY, AND THUS IT IS
LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY. HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON VERY WELL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A HARD
FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS IS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1P
AND 7P ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND IT, WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE UPPER 70S
SUNDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, WITH 20-30 MPH OR HIGHER GUSTS LOOKING
LIKELY AT THIS POINT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. COLD
TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S OR LOWER 50S WITH TEMPS FEELING COOLER GIVEN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS. WE'LL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A FREEZE ON
MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, JUST HOW COLD WE GET
IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TIGHT ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. BUT HOW FAST THIS
OCCURS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS
CRITICAL - IF WE MAINTAIN EVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE 4-7 MPH RANGE
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE
TEMPS FALL TO 30F-33F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SHELTERED
LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, IF THE SURFACE
HIGH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY HAVE TIME TO
RELAX ENOUGH FOR CALM CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING,
PROMOTING A FEW HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WOULD
ALLOW WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. I THINK
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS RIGHT
NOW, AS THEY'LL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
CONTINUING TO TREND TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR ATOP THE AREA, FAVORING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL LIKELY
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO THE 20S, BUT LOW 30S SEEMS
REASONABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN LOOKS
AMPLIFIED, PROGRESSIVE, AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF FOG/STRATUS.
MORNING STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT NEARS THE REGION FROM THE NW, BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY
AFTER 06-09Z. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS REMAINS
ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION, BUT
THE GREATER CHANCE WOULD BE NEAR AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB. RECENT
NBM/HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, ANOTHER MORNING WITH STRATUS
AND FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE, THOUGH IT APPEARS TO FAVOR THE CSRA AT
THIS TIME. ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALLEVIATE AFTER
14-16Z BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME SCATTERED
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND CONVECTION INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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