168
FXUS62 KCAE 080506
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1206 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TO ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE
STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WELL-
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY
SATURDAY.
- CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TREKKING
EASTWARD, BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DOES. HOWEVER, MOST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH
TO REACH OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MILD THAN THE PAST
FEW DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
AN INTERESTING, WARM, AND SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PERIOD IS ON TAP
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY, AND WILL BE IN FULL SWING EARLY ON SATURDAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY, LIKELY
DECAYING QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT THE AFTERNOON BUT
CUMULUS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN AS WE'LL BE WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP
INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETUP FOR A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME, WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS, THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE OVERALL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY, WIND FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE INGREDIENTS, IN ADDITION TO A DIFFUSE BUT NOTABLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, IN THE AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GETTING CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY QUESTION OF THIS
SETUP. GUIDANCE HAS HAD A TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TOWARDS
INTRODUCING A WEAK 700 HPA SHORTWAVE PASSING NEAR THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THIS FORCING REGIME, DECENT MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN KEEPING DETRIMENTAL ENTRAINMENT
POTENTIALLY AT BAY. LATEST RRFS, MPAS, AND RAP GUIDANCE ALL
POINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THESE WOULD BE HAIL. HODOGRAPHS ARE STRAIGHT AS AN
ARROW, WITH SPLITTING STORMS & HAIL FAVORED IN THIS REGIME. ADD
IN LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND 70+ KNOTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND
YOU HAVE A SETUP FOR SOME HAILERS. IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK BY ANY
MEANS BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS I
HAVE SEEN SETUPS LIKE THIS SURPRISE AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT.
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY
TAPER OFF DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ONE INTERESTING
FEATURE OF THIS INITIAL WAVE IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS IT HELPING SHIFT SURFACE 60F+ DEWPOINTS TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY FRONT ON SUNDAY.
THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT SUNDAY, AND THUS IT IS
LOOKING A BIT DRIER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY. HIGHS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON VERY WELL MAKE A RUN AT THE LOW 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RACE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 1P
AND 7P ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND IT, WITH TEMPS FALLING FROM THE UPPER 70S
SUNDAY EVENING TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, WITH 20-30 MPH OR HIGHER GUSTS LOOKING
LIKELY AT THIS POINT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A HARD
FREEZE REMAINS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS IS ACROSS THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COLD TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S WITH TEMPS FEELING COOLER GIVEN THE
WINDY CONDITIONS. WE'LL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A
FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, JUST HOW
COLD WE GET IS UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS
TO REMAIN TIGHT ON MONDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. BUT HOW
FAST THIS OCCURS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS IS CRITICAL - IF WE MAINTAIN EVEN LIGHT WINDS IN THE 4-7
MPH RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE TEMPS FALL TO 30F-33F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SHELTERED LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, IF
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
HAVE TIME TO RELAX ENOUGH FOR CALM CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING, PROMOTING A FEW HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS WOULD ALLOW WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S. I THINK THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS SEE THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS RIGHT NOW, AS THEY'LL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. CONTINUING TO TREND TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR ATOP THE AREA,
FAVORING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY
WILL LIKELY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO THE 20S, BUT LOW
30S SEEMS REASONABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE
PATTERN LOOKS AMPLIFIED, PROGRESSIVE, AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF FOG/STRATUS
BRINGING A FEW RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING BRINING WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
A FEW -TSRA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS REMAINS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF CONVECTION, BUT BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AND EXIT THE REGION
TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO FAVOR THE CSRA AT THIS TIME. ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALLEVIATE AFTER 08/14-16Z BEFORE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24 TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND CONVECTION INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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