633
FXUS62 KCAE 080829
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
329 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD
OF A WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND MAY BRING STRONG WINDS
OR SMALL HAIL.
EARLY THIS MORNING: A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTH AND SEPARATE FROM THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FA BUT A STABLE SURFACE LAYER WILL LIMIT
THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD: AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE DAY. DEEP SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM, MOIST ADVECTION LEADING TO
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW LIMITED COVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS, THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE FROM THE NBM AND HREF RANGES BETWEEN 500 AND 1250 J/KG AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT THEY COULD STRUGGLE IN A
VERY SHEAR DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS.
IF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IT COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SMALL HAIL
WITH A WETBULB 0 DEG HEIGHT OF JUST ABOUT 9000 FT. HODOGRAPHS
ARE GENERALLY STRAIGHT WITH LIMITED SRH IN THE LOWEST KM WHICH
WOULD BE UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE LOCALLY
ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TO THE NC BORDER
DURING THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WANES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH A FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED, WITH HIGHEST PWATS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS HREF
INDICATES A HIGH PROBABILITY (60-70%) OF PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH.
HIRES GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT SUNDAY BUT MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BUT
HREF MEMBERS ALL KEEP SBCAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO WHILE THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PULLED THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FARTHER SOUTHEAST, JUST
BARELY CLIPPING OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND A 40-50%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS A RESULT, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE USHERING IN OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES, IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES
WITH THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD ADVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY
SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GENERALLY AROUND -15C BELOW
AVERAGE. WITH THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DRIVEN BY
COLD ADVECTION, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S EAST TO UPPER 30S WEST.
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGHEST 850MB
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES
A 25 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY, IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S! A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE
WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY, MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS THAT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
LEADING TO LINGERING WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT, FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED JUST DUE TO THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES
ANOMALY OF THIS AIR MASS. IN FACT, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A 20-
40% PROBABILITY OF LOWS BELOW 25. THE DAILY RECORD FOR AUGUSTA IS 24
AND 26 FOR COLUMBIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY AND COLD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US. BY MIDWEEK, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES
THAT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN TO CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES MODERATE
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. BY THURSDAY, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH MAJORITY OF LREF MEMBERS INDICATING PWATS
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF FOG/STRATUS
BRINGING A FEW RESTRICTIONS.
CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING BRINING WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AND POSSIBLY
A FEW -TSRA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS REMAINS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED
NATURE OF CONVECTION, BUT BRIEF CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH AND EXIT THE REGION
TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH IT
APPEARS TO FAVOR THE CSRA AT THIS TIME. ANY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD ALLEVIATE AFTER 08/14-16Z BEFORE LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS THE END OF THE 24 TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND CONVECTION INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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