859
FXUS62 KCAE 081712
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1212 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WHERE A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WELL- ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, A
COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND MAY BRING STRONG WINDS OR
HAIL.
CLEARING IS SEEN ON SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BIT
OF LINGERING STRATUS TOWARD THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS, JUST SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS HAS FORMED A DECENT THERMAL
GRADIENT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS IN THE MID
60S WHILE THE SOUTHERN FA IS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. PER
SURFACE MESOANALYSIS, THE NEARLY STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE, EXTENDING TO NEAR OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ALSO DRAPED A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND COASTAL
PLAIN, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
PSEUDO WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DECENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG IT. MOISTURE IS ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS ALREADY REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ALOFT, A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE MS/AL VICINITY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS RELATIVELY SUBTLE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY INTO THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AND TOWARD THE PEE DEE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING (WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE CLEARING AND MOISTENING THAT HAS OCCURRED) ALONG
WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM. PLENTY
OF SHEAR WILL BE IN STORE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR PUSHING 45 KTS
AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP TO AROUND 70 KTS. THIS SETUP IS OVERALL
EXPECTED TO BRING SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WITH A COUPLE CLUSTERS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WHERE THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. THIS RISK IS PARTIALLY
THANKS TO SEASONABLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11.5 KFT AND LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9-10 KFT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. A NON-ZERO, BUT LOW,
TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ACT TO ADD ENHANCED VORTICITY AND DESPITE
STRONGLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, RECENT HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE AROUND 150-250 M^2/S^2 OF EFFECTIVE INFLOW SRH JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
I BELIEVE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS NON-ZERO TORNADO
RISK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ONCE WE HEAD TOWARD THE EVENING,
SURFACE STABILITY SHOULD INCREASE, TRANSITIONING STORMS TO BE
MORE ELEVATED. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BEFORE WANING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD, PULLING
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
HREF PWS PUSH BELOW 1" FAIRLY QUICKLY, INDICATING UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL BE MUCH MORE RAPID AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. ALL
OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
FRONT LOOKS ROBUST ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HIGHS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY OVER-PERFORM THE
NBM GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT OVERALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OR HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S IS NEGLIGIBLE.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
AFTER 3P ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY
FALL AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE GUSTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED.
- A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AS
INTENSE CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE EXACT DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH IS
IMPORTANT FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS, NAMELY THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING, AND THE LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED, UPPER LOW AND YIELDING SOME
GRAUPEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF MAKES THE
CLOSEST PASS TO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW, AND WE WOULD NEED IT TO
BASICALLY PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHERN FA TO YIELD ANY GRAUPEL.
IN TERMS OF WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, A DEEP TROUGH WOULD YIELD
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH THE
ECMWF AND EC EFI SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES ON MONDAY. I TEND TO BUY THIS THOUGHT AS REALLY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TENDS TO YIELD GOOD SURFACE MIXING & WOULD
MAKE IT EASIER TO MIX DOWN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WE NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS WITHIN HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THIS.
AND THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL FULLY GO
CALM AT ANY ONE PLACE GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE SO DRY AND COLD THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE EVEN
WHERE WINDS FALL INTO THE 3-6 MPH RANGE, OR EVEN GO BRIEFLY
CALM. LATEST NBM 5.0 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 75%+ CHANCE IF LOWS
FALLING BELOW 28F BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
MIDLANDS & CSRA. THESE AREAS DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A HARD FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHOULD SEE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS. FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE, TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO SHELTERED LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING A FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH. THE RECORD LOW FOR TUESDAY MORNING AT CAE
IS 26F AND AT AGS IS 24F. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BOTH SITES
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOWS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE
LONG TERM OVERALL. IF YOU NEED TO PROTECT ASSETS OUTDOORS SUCH
AS PLANTS OR CROPS, MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR A HARD FREEZE NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA, 20+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FROM THERE, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY BEGUN CLEARING WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
PATCHES OF STRATO-CU THAT HAVE BROUGHT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS NEAR CAE/CUB. CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18-19Z, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHERE THE GREATEST RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR AT
THE AUGUSTA AND COLUMBIA TERMINALS. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
TOWARD OGB IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS
ACTIVITY GENERALLY WANES AFTER 04-06Z TONIGHT.
LAMP GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WHILE THE NBM AND HRRR ARE A BIT MORE PATCHY. OVERALL,
AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS SEEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR BY
14-15Z. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND
OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONGER FRONT NEARS LATER SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW END CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY EVENING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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