707
FXUS62 KCAE 082327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WHERE A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WELL- ADVERTISED
COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG AND MAY BRING STRONG WINDS OR HAIL.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS BEHIND A WARM FRONT HAS PROVIDED THE FUEL,
AND A MID LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED THE SHEAR, FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
A COUPLE OF WHICH HAVE BEEN ORGANIZED LONG-TRACKED SUPERCELLS.
FORTUNATELY, THE CELLS ARE RATHER SMALL IN SIZE, SO THE AREAS
THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THE SEVERE WEATHER HAVE ALSO BEEN RATHER
SMALL. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT UNDERGO AN UNEVEN BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS
SURFACE-BASED ENERGY DIMINISHES WITH SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END,
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD, PULLING
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
HREF PWS PUSH BELOW 1" FAIRLY QUICKLY, INDICATING UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL BE MUCH MORE RAPID AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. ALL
OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
FRONT LOOKS ROBUST ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HIGHS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY OVER-PERFORM THE
NBM GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT OVERALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OR HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S IS NEGLIGIBLE.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
AFTER 3P ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY
FALL AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE GUSTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA. WE WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED.
- A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AS
INTENSE CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE EXACT DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH IS
IMPORTANT FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS, NAMELY THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING, AND THE LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED, UPPER LOW AND YIELDING SOME
GRAUPEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF MAKES THE
CLOSEST PASS TO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW, AND WE WOULD NEED IT TO
BASICALLY PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHERN FA TO YIELD ANY GRAUPEL.
IN TERMS OF WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, A DEEP TROUGH WOULD YIELD
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH THE
ECMWF AND EC EFI SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES ON MONDAY. I TEND TO BUY THIS THOUGHT AS REALLY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TENDS TO YIELD GOOD SURFACE MIXING & WOULD
MAKE IT EASIER TO MIX DOWN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WE NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS WITHIN HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THIS.
AND THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL FULLY GO
CALM AT ANY ONE PLACE GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE SO DRY AND COLD THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE EVEN
WHERE WINDS FALL INTO THE 3-6 MPH RANGE, OR EVEN GO BRIEFLY
CALM. LATEST NBM 5.0 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 75%+ CHANCE IF LOWS
FALLING BELOW 28F BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
MIDLANDS & CSRA. THESE AREAS DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A HARD FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHOULD SEE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS. FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE, TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO SHELTERED LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING A FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH. THE RECORD LOW FOR TUESDAY MORNING AT CAE
IS 26F AND AT AGS IS 24F. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BOTH SITES
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOWS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE
LONG TERM OVERALL. IF YOU NEED TO PROTECT ASSETS OUTDOORS SUCH
AS PLANTS OR CROPS, MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR A HARD FREEZE NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA, 20+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FROM THERE, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
BATCH OF STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT
BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT GET A
TOUCH BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONGER FRONT NEARS LATER SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOW END CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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