992
FXUS62 KCAE 090543
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1243 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP BY
LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, DIMINISHING BY SUNRISE.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION EARLIER HAS
LEFT THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. ANY
REMAINING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STRATUS AND FOG FILLING IN DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE FROM TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD, PULLING
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
HREF PWS PUSH BELOW 1" FAIRLY QUICKLY, INDICATING UPPER LEVEL DRYING
WILL BE MUCH MORE RAPID AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. ALL
OF THAT IS TO SAY THAT THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER. THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS SITUATED TO OUR NORTH, WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
FRONT LOOKS ROBUST ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG IT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HIGHS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY OVER-PERFORM THE
NBM GIVEN RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT OVERALL THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OR HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S IS NEGLIGIBLE.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
AFTER 3P ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY
FALL AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE GUSTY ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH POSSIBLE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AREA. LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED.
- A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AS
INTENSE CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE EXACT DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH IS
IMPORTANT FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS, NAMELY THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING, AND THE LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED, UPPER LOW AND YIELDING SOME
GRAUPEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF MAKES THE
CLOSEST PASS TO THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW, AND WE WOULD NEED IT TO
BASICALLY PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHERN FA TO YIELD ANY GRAUPEL.
IN TERMS OF WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, A DEEP TROUGH WOULD YIELD
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH THE
ECMWF AND EC EFI SUGGESTING THAT WE MAY BE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES ON MONDAY. I TEND TO BUY THIS THOUGHT AS REALLY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TENDS TO YIELD GOOD SURFACE MIXING & WOULD
MAKE IT EASIER TO MIX DOWN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT. WE NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS WITHIN HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH RESPECT TO THIS.
AND THEN BY MONDAY NIGHT, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL FULLY GO
CALM AT ANY ONE PLACE GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL BE SO DRY AND COLD THAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE EVEN
WHERE WINDS FALL INTO THE 3-6 MPH RANGE, OR EVEN GO BRIEFLY
CALM. LATEST NBM 5.0 GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 75%+ CHANCE IF LOWS
FALLING BELOW 28F BY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
MIDLANDS & CSRA. THESE AREAS DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A HARD FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHOULD SEE THE
LIGHTEST WINDS. FURTHER NORTHEAST IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE, TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO SHELTERED LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING A FREEZE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH. THE RECORD LOW FOR TUESDAY MORNING AT CAE
IS 26F AND AT AGS IS 24F. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BOTH SITES
MAKE A RUN AT THE RECORD LOWS. THAT IS THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE
LONG TERM OVERALL. IF YOU NEED TO PROTECT ASSETS OUTDOORS SUCH
AS PLANTS OR CROPS, MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR A HARD FREEZE NOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA, 20+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FROM THERE, A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BRING CEILING AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS AS STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHOWERS. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
RESTRICTIONS WILL MIX OUT AROUND 15Z AS SW GUSTS PICK UP AROUND
25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE BUT
OGB ARE LOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WE
WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO WNW AND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 20
KTS AS COLD, DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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