683
FXUS62 KCAE 091116
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
616 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WARM, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO THE EAST
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EARLY THIS MORNING, DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
LED TO STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE
SHOWS 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM WHICH WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR STRATUS OVER DENSE FOG.
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS A 20 TO
30 KT LLJ MIXES TO THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, DEEP SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OR EVEN THE
LOW 80S. ALTHOUGH WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN FA. BY THE TIME PWAT VALUES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM
FORECAST VALUE OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES DRIER AIR WILL HAVE STARTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN FA LIMITING THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THESE
LOCATIONS IS LOW SINCE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRIER
AIR.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALSO EXITING
TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. IT WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREA LAKES AS STRONG
COLD ADVECTION PUSHES OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MUCH COLDER WITH A FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS MONDAY, BREEZY TUESDAY.
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE TN VALLEY. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY. COLD ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY FALLING
HEIGHTS MONDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AROUND 30
DEGREES COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA, MIXING WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. WITH STRENGTHENING 850MB WINDS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF MONDAY, WITH STRONGEST 850MB JET GENERALLY OVER
THE CSRA. MAX GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PROBABILITY (~20% OR LESS) OF MAX GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH. THE
FIRST LOOK AT SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
SO WHILE ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED,
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND ADVISORY IS LOW. COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH NAEFS MEAN
INDICATING 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MINIMUM, LESS THAN -8C. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE MONDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT AS A RESULT.
BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR LOWS IN THE MID-20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH 40-60% PROBABILITY OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW 26F. THE DAILY RECORD FOR AUGUSTA IS 24F AND 26F FOR
COLUMBIA.
ANOTHER COLD DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE AS STRONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST, ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST 850MB NEGATIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. LOWS NOT QUITE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL
FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PERSIST. BREEZY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE WITH NAEFS MEAN SHOWING 850MB WINDS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE ECMWF EFI DOES NOT HIGHLIGHT THE
AREA, INDICATING CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. TEMPERATURES WARMING TOWARDS
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH LREF PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 70%) OF
PWATS LESS THAN 3/4 OF AN INCH.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING CEILING AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS AS STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE KCAE
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A 20 TO 30 KT LLJ AT AROUND 3000 FT WHICH
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR STRATUS OVER DENSE FOG. ALL TAF SITES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO LIFR BRIEFLY.
RESTRICTIONS WILL MIX OUT AROUND 15Z AS SW GUSTS PICK UP AROUND
25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVERYWHERE BUT
OGB ARE LOW. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WE
WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO WNW AND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO AROUND 20
KTS AS COLD, DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR MONDAY WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
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