611
FXUS62 KCAE 091749
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A WELL- ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EAST THIS
EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SCATTERED STRATO-CU AS THE VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NEARING TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE FA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION BRING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PWAT'S AROUND 1.1-1.2". A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH MIXING DOWN SOME WINDS
FROM 25-30 KTS OF FLOW UP TO 850 MB WILL BRING A BREEZY
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE GUSTS TO 25-35
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREA LAKES. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE POTENTIALLY
INCREASING LATER MONDAY, THUS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING AS MOST CAM'S SUGGEST, QUICKLY DIMINISHING
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD REACH THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS BUT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL
BE TOWARD THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AS DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA, GREATLY
LIMITING CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE GREATER CHANCE FOR
THIS IS TOWARD THE COAST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE AND
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PUSHES IN AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
FOR A HARD FREEZE.
A COLD COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS YOUNG COOL SEASON ARRIVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIRMASS IS JUST RIDICULOUSLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT THE
COLDEST IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER NAEFS. THIS
WILL FOSTER NEAR RECORD COLD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL
AS NEAR RECORD COLD LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING LOOK BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY AT TIMES.
AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH INCREASE MARKEDLY, WITH 925 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO
THE 95TH TO 98TH PERCENTILE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ~I26
IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
ROBUST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE CSRA.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMEFRAME FOR PEAK WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 4P AND
11P. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AT
CAE (26F) AND AGS (24F). WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS. TUESDAY LOOKS COLD AS WELL BUT
SHOULD BE MARKEDLY LESS WINDY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND SETTLES MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY EARLY),
BLENT IN COOLER GUIDANCE TO SHOW LOWS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND CREATES A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH.
WINDS MAY GUST 20-25 MPH, AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT, THE LONG TERM LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET AS AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE CONUS. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN RISING ON
THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL AS A RESULT. LOW PWS BELOW HALF AN INCH LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND A FRONT TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO VFR WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP WHERE GUSTS TOWARD 20-25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH MAY SPARK SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AFTER 21-23Z. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS IS LOW WITH OGB BEING THE MOST LIKELY
TO POSSIBLY SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT LIKELY REMAINING BREEZY WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 20-25 KTS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN (LIKELY
PRECLUDING ANY STRATUS/FOG) BEFORE SOME MORE SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WHERE
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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