549
FXUS62 KCAE 092312
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
612 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A WELL- ADVERTISED COLD FRONT. WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING.
- GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA, BUT
MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES, ANNOUNCING
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARLY SEASON MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY ALL NIGHT UNDER CONSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF MONDAY AS COLD AIR
PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
- A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
FOR A HARD FREEZE.
A COLD COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS YOUNG COOL SEASON ARRIVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE AIRMASS IS JUST RIDICULOUSLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT THE
COLDEST IN THE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PER NAEFS. THIS
WILL FOSTER NEAR RECORD COLD HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL
AS NEAR RECORD COLD LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING LOOK BREEZY TO EVEN WINDY AT TIMES.
AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH, INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH INCREASE MARKEDLY, WITH 925 HPA FLOW INCREASING TO
THE 95TH TO 98TH PERCENTILE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ~I26
IN THE FORECAST AREA. CONSIDERING COLD ADVECTION WILL REMAIN
ROBUST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT SOME 40-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE CSRA.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMEFRAME FOR PEAK WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 4P AND
11P. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AT
CAE (26F) AND AGS (24F). WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS. TUESDAY LOOKS COLD AS WELL BUT
SHOULD BE MARKEDLY LESS WINDY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND SETTLES MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY EARLY),
BLENDED IN COOLER GUIDANCE TO SHOW LOWS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND CREATES A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH.
WINDS MAY GUST 20-25 MPH, AND WE MAY NEED ANOTHER LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT, THE LONG TERM LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET AS AN AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE CONUS. HEIGHTS SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN RISING ON
THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL AS A RESULT. LOW PWS BELOW HALF AN INCH LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGS A SHIFT IN
THE WINDS TO THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH OGB BEING THE LAST TO SWITCH TO WEST. AS THE FRONT PASSES,
PERIODS OF WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS ARE LIKELY. A LULL IN THE GUSTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT CAE/CUB/OGB FROM ABOUT 6-15Z, BUT GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN PERSISTENT AT AGS/DNL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS OR GREATER AFTER 15Z AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE TERMINALS HAVE DROPPED SINCE THE
LAST UPDATE, SO HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
OGB THROUGH ABOUT 05Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE
MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-
018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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