953
FXUS62 KCAE 102349
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
649 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN ABNORMALLY
COLD AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY
DAY ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- HARD FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S.
RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD
COUNTIES INDICATE ICE PELLETS AND FLURRIES ARE FALLING AND THIS
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WILL
BE THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE ALREADY STARTING TO FALL QUICKLY
IN AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES
CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
MID-20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS.
THE PRIMARY FACTOR AGAINST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE
WINDS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS, THIS COLD WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON FOR OUR
COUNTIES AND A FREEZE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 8PM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY, WARMING INTO MIDWEEK.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE COLD ON TUESDAY. CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS IS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND DRY, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING BELOW THE
10TH PERCENTILE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
MUCH ESPECIALLY WITH THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING NEARBY
& WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THE DAY IN THE MID 20S. SO LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY COOL VERY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING A
BIT, WITH LOWS LIKELY BEING HIT EARLY ON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. A STRONG, FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BREEZY
WINDS PICKING UP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S OR LOW
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH, WITH MID 30S MORE COMMON NEAR THE NC BORDER. THE
AFORMENTIONED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BEGIN OUR WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOO, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY IN THE LONG TERM, WITH
INCREASINGLY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING IS GRIP OVER OUR WEATHER. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 0.75" FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY RISING
NEAR 1" BY THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLIGHTLY RISE
EACH DAY, RISING FROM THE MID 60S THURSDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S BY SUNDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
AVIATION /00 TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND ISSUES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CLOUDS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MIDLANDS WILL BRING A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING CLOSE TO CAE/CUB THROUGH 04Z.
THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN THAT ACTIVITY, SO IF IT
DOES BRUSH THE MIDLANDS LOCATIONS, A FLURRY OR TWO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. BIGGER ISSUE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 30+
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
08Z-11Z, WITH SOME GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE UP TO 15 KNOTS. AFTER
11Z, GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY A PERIOD THROUGH SUNRISE IN
WHICH WINDS MAY DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SPEEDS BELOW 5
KNOTS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ONCE THE MIXING STARTS AGAIN
BY 15Z, WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS AROUND 16 KNOTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
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