004
FXUS62 KCAE 110554
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS AN ABNORMALLY
COLD AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE
WARNING IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY
DAY ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- HARD FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
ALREADY AT OR BELOW FREEZINGUNDER CLEAR SKIES. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-20S WITH SOME
LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS, WITH WIND CHILLS
DIPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE PRIMARY FACTOR AGAINST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE THE WINDS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY
AT TIMES TONIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
4AM TUESDAY. REGARDLESS, THIS COLD WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING
SEASON FOR OUR COUNTIES AND A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY, WARMING INTO MIDWEEK.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE COLD ON TUESDAY. CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS IS
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND DRY, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING BELOW THE
10TH PERCENTILE. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
MUCH ESPECIALLY WITH THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING NEARBY
& WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THE DAY IN THE MID 20S. SO LOOK
FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY COOL VERY QUICKLY ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING A
BIT, WITH LOWS LIKELY BEING HIT EARLY ON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. A STRONG, FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH BREEZY
WINDS PICKING UP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S OR LOW
30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
HIGH, WITH MID 30S MORE COMMON NEAR THE NC BORDER. THE
AFORMENTIONED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BEGIN OUR WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS
PUSHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TOO, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY IN THE LONG TERM, WITH
INCREASINGLY NICE WEATHER EXPECTED HEADING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING IS GRIP OVER OUR WEATHER. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 0.75" FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY RISING
NEAR 1" BY THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLIGHTLY RISE
EACH DAY, RISING FROM THE MID 60S THURSDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S BY SUNDAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE
TERMINALS, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS,
WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS EVENING, REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE WNW WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARDS SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. WINDS DECREASING BY
SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING LLWS BUT LIKELY AFTER 6Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
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