307
FXUS62 KCAE 110710
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
210 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S THIS MORNING
WITH A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. AFTER ANOTHER COLD,
DRY, AND BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A BIT BREEZY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AT -10C WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS OF 2AM AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WINDS SHOULD GRADUAL DIMINISH
WITH HIRES FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A BIT OF A WEAKENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S WITH
MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY INTO THE LOW 20S OR EVEN POSSIBLY
UPPER TEENS.
TODAY, AFTER A COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE. BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER
THAN 70%) OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 50F THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH WHICH
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH HREF MEAN
PWATS LESS THAN A HALF INCH WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AS A
RESULT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DECREASING WINDS AROUND SUNSET. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY COOL QUICKLY BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS AROUND FREEZING TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
500MB FLOW PATTERN FAVORS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND A DIGGING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWESTERLY WARMING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. STRONG WIND FIELDS AT 850MB (40KTS) WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PUSH A WEAK BUT DRY FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
VALUES LESS THAN A HALF INCH WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE
PASSING FRONT. UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A BIT ON THURSDAY COMBINED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
AND BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
- POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM
UPPER FLOW PATTERN FEATURING A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE OH/MS
VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS RISE BACK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE LOW RAIN
CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR OVER THE
TERMINALS, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS,
WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER THIS EVENING, REMAIN BREEZY OUT
OF THE WNW WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARDS SUNRISE. ADDITIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. WINDS DECREASING BY
SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING LLWS BUT LIKELY AFTER 6Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GAZ040-063>065-077.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
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