342
FXUS62 KCAE 111652
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1152 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO
NEAR AVERAGE VALUES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A BIT BREEZY.
WELL, IT WAS NICE AND COLD THIS MORNING! LOWS ACROSS THE AREA
WERE WELL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ENDING THE GROWING
SEASON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE BOUNCING BACK NICELY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE. LOOK FOR THESE TO RELAX A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN CLOSER TO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND 50F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT, WE SHOULD HAVE A
NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. LOWS WILL LIKELY BE THEIR
COOLEST BY ABOUT 2A BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AS WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECT LOWS BETWEEN 29F AND 35F, WITH THE GRADIENT WARMER NORTH
AND COOLER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A
DAY OF STRONG TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH
INCREASING SURFACE MIXING ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF
25-30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO JUMP QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO MON/TUES WITH MID 60S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY, SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP FOSTER WARM TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S OR LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
- NEXT POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE TREND
HAS BEEN TOWARDS A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ADDITIONALLY, THIS KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS SEPARATE. A STRONG LOW IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND DRIVE A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN US BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY SOMETIME. WARM TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON SAT/SUN/MON AS A RESULT. ITS LIKELY THAT THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE
BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND DELAY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
UNTIL A LATER TIME NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS
PRETTY NICE TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER WISE.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ITS NICE AND SUNNY OUT THERE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH. PWS ARE VERY LOW ACROSS THE
AREA, FOSTERING CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY EARLY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO RELAX, BUT WIND SHOULD LOWER BY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND REINVIGORATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WIND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA, A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE
ORDER OF 40+ KNOTS AT 2000 FEET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS VERY LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT, BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AND THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH 13Z OR 14Z WHEN SURFACE MIXING SHOULD
INCREASE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. GUSTS BY THIS POINT WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST THE MID WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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