789
FXUS62 KCAE 112336
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING,
ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES.
AS EXPECTED, WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THEIR QUICK DECENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN
NORMALLY COLD AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS IS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES, A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A
DAY OF STRONG TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH
INCREASING SURFACE MIXING ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF
25-30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO JUMP QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO MON/TUES WITH MID 60S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY, SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP FOSTER WARM TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S OR LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
- NEXT POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE TREND
HAS BEEN TOWARDS A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ADDITIONALLY, THIS KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS SEPARATE. A STRONG LOW IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND DRIVE A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN US BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY SOMETIME. WARM TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON SAT/SUN/MON AS A RESULT. ITS LIKELY THAT THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE
BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND DELAY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
UNTIL A LATER TIME NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS
PRETTY NICE TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER WISE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS OVERNIGHT.
A VERY DRY AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS WILL HELP
TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND VISIBILITIES FOG FREE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS FOR WINDS, THAT WILL
BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECOUPLED THIS EVENING, WITH SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TOWARDS
06Z. MODEL SOUNDING TIME SECTIONS SHOWING A 40+ WIND MAX AROUND
2KFT FROM 06Z THROUGH AROUND 13Z. SO WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS, AND THOSE STRONG WINDS INCREASING JUST ABOVE THE
INVERSION, TONIGHT WILL BE A PRIME SETUP FOR LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. GENERAL WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS,
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO BETWEEN 10-25 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN TOWARDS SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page