443
FXUS62 KCAE 120558
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING,
ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHEN VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S
IN NORMALLY COLD AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS IS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON AREA LAKES, A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD A
DAY OF STRONG TEMPERATURE MODERATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH
INCREASING SURFACE MIXING ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF
25-30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO JUMP QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO MON/TUES WITH MID 60S EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY, SO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RISING
HEIGHTS WILL HELP FOSTER WARM TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
30S OR LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND
- NEXT POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE TREND
HAS BEEN TOWARDS A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ADDITIONALLY, THIS KEEPS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS SEPARATE. A STRONG LOW IS
FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND DRIVE A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN US BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY SOMETIME. WARM TEMPS WILL LIKELY
PRECEDE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ON SAT/SUN/MON AS A RESULT. ITS LIKELY THAT THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY AS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP THE
BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND DELAY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION
UNTIL A LATER TIME NEXT WEEK. SO OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS
PRETTY NICE TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER WISE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES. SOME MVFR HAZE WAS BRIEFLY REPORTED AT CUB, LIKELY
DUE TO URBAN EMISSIONS AND MAY CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS AT 2KFT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
WHEN STRONGER GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAX AROUND 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ONCE AGAIN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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