239
FXUS62 KCAE 120725
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ON AREA LAKES.
- GRADUAL WARMING BEGINNING TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BUT HAVE BEGUN TO
LEVEL OFF AS THE KCAE VWP SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET,
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM 925-850MB AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL PICK
UP A BIT, MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
INVERSION IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER AREA
LAKES WHERE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 60F. AS A
RESULT, GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. AS THE
INVERSION BREAKS LATER THIS MORNING, BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ON LAND AS WELL, ALTHOUGH MAINLY AROUND 20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S TODAY WITH BREEZY WSW WINDS. CONTINUED MODERATION FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND RESULT IN PWATS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD BY
12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND
- NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS
RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL, IT IS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
ANY UPPER FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, SO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS DRY.
THERE IS AN EFI SIGNAL FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH 850MB AND 1000MB
WINDS AROUND THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. ESAT TABLES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES AT THE 500MB THROUGH THE 850MB LEVELS
ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE PROVIDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST EJECTS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS, BUT THE TREND OF LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES. SOME MVFR HAZE WAS BRIEFLY REPORTED AT CUB, LIKELY
DUE TO URBAN EMISSIONS AND MAY CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NEAR 40 KNOTS AT 2KFT. LLWS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
WHEN STRONGER GUSTS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAX AROUND 20
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS ONCE AGAIN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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