752
FXUS62 KCAE 121138
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
638 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK TO NEAR
AVERAGE VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ON AREA LAKES.
- GRADUAL WARMING BEGINNING TODAY.
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH.
KCAE VWP SHOWS A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET, BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS
FROM 925-850MB AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE
NORTH. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT, MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER AREA LAKES WHERE LAKE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 60F. AS A RESULT, GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. AS THE INVERSION BREAKS LATER THIS
MORNING, BREEZY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED ON LAND AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH MAINLY AROUND 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TODAY AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES AND THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S TODAY WITH BREEZY WSW WINDS. CONTINUED MODERATION FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS OFFSHORE RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND RESULT IN PWATS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WITH
NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN COLD ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD BY
12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND
- NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND
ON SUNDAY. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS
RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL, IT IS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND
ANY UPPER FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, SO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS DRY.
THERE IS AN EFI SIGNAL FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS PRECEDING THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH 850MB AND 1000MB
WINDS AROUND THE 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. ESAT TABLES
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES AT THE 500MB THROUGH THE 850MB LEVELS
ARE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE PROVIDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE
PERSISTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST EJECTS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE
CAROLINAS, BUT THE TREND OF LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH
THIS SCENARIO SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS. LLWS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE INVERSION BREAKS.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF FOG IMPACTING VISIBILITIES AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB
TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG NOT EXPECTED.
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE A STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET HAS DEVELOPED WITH ~40 KNOTS AT 2KFT. WITH THE SURFACE WINDS
MOSTLY WEAK AT ALL TERMINALS, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE
THE INVERSION BREAKS AND GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
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