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FXUS62 KCAE 130604
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
104 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BE REINFORCED
BY DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE PLAINS. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 4
TENTHS OF AN INCH. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE, NEAR
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES EASTWARD. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
DUE TO PWATS BEING AROUND A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD
WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND AN INCH ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING FLOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PASS DRY. EC EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS ON
SUNDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS 500MB FLOW FLATTENS TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CHANCES
OF RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE WNW AFTER SUNRISE
AROUND 5 KNOTS. DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR MOVING IN TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB BUT OVERALL FOG THREAT
REMAINS LOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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