275
FXUS62 KCAE 281723
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION TODAY. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS
IN PLACE WITH PWATS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE NEAR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT
TO NEAR CALM WINDS. THE ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE
POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE REGION.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NBM GUIDANCE AND NBM50TH PERCENTILE IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH
MOS AND THINK THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN
ENOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP VERY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF WINDS WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S AND IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL AND DRY ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AT DAYBREAK WILL SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN. MORNING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AT NIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A LARGE RANGE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
MID-30S IN THE CSRA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA BUT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEHIND IT. SUPPORT IS
LACKING WITH THIS FRONT AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY END UP DRY, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHARP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LIMITS COOLING AGAIN AT NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH A LOW END RISK FOR
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE CSRA.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE AN IN-SITU
WEDGE SETUP, KEEPING THE FA COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY.
PWATS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN, TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM USHERING IN
ANOTHER COOL, DRY AIR MASS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG CONCERNS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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