657
FXUS62 KCAE 290000
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
700 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID-LOW 20'S MANY SPOTS.
ANOTHER COLD EVENING AND NIGHT ARE AHEAD AS EXTREMELY DRY HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN BY WINTER STANDARDS THIS
AIRMASS IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WITH PWAT'S LESS THAN 0.15"; NAEFS
DISTRIBUTIONS PUT THIS AS A 0.5-1ST PERCENTILE FOR LOW PWAT'S.
CROSSOVER TEMPS REPRESENT THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 4-10F EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND LITTLE
FLOW BELOW 700MB, THIS IS A PRETTY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP.
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME BLOW-OFF CIRRUS RIDING THE STRONG 250MB JET,
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL US TROUGH. IT IS QUITE THIN AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO, BUT COULD LIMIT THE BOTTOM END OF HOW MUCH WE COOL
TONIGHT. EITHER WAY, TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 20'S SEEMS ALL BUT
GUARANTEED AS A ROBUST INVERSION WILL SET IN. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PEE DEE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW 20'S OR UPPER 10'S IN THE
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL AND DRY ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WEST VIRGINIA AT DAYBREAK WILL SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ANOTHER COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN. MORNING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY
MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AT NIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE A LARGE RANGE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND
MID-30S IN THE CSRA.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA BUT IS NOW
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEHIND IT. SUPPORT IS
LACKING WITH THIS FRONT AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY END UP DRY, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHARP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES GRADIENT WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LIMITS COOLING AGAIN AT NIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID-40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH A LOW END RISK FOR
SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE CSRA.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE AN IN-SITU
WEDGE SETUP, KEEPING THE FA COOL AND MAINLY CLOUDY ON MONDAY.
PWATS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CSRA, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE
QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN, TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM USHERING IN
ANOTHER COOL, DRY AIR MASS. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL PREVENT ANY
PRECIPITATION AND WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG CONCERNS. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
SATURDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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