078
FXUS62 KCAE 290546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1246 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID-LOW 20'S
IN MANY SPOTS.
- CONTINUED COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING: VERY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE TO START
OFF THE MORNING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S TO THE UPPER TEENS,
WITH DRIER AIR STILL MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON LIGHT WINDS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS
CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING ALMOST IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL BE PUSHING
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THOUGH BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, AND THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN BRINGING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INLAND BY
TONIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH THOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY KIND
OF PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE
CHILLY THOUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER
50S SOUTH. BY TONIGHT, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COOLING, BUT THERE
COULD BE A LARGE RANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES WITH UPPER 20S IN
THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND MID-30S IN THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY WITH CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD
OF IT.
- MAJORITY OF MONDAY HAS TRENDED DRY UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHEN RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE IT FINALLY STALLS OUT OFF THE COAST BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVES PWAT'S TO NEAR 1"
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASED WAA AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MORNING MAY DRIVE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A
COUPLE MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BUT IN GENERAL CAM SUPPORT FOR COVERAGE
GREATER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN FA COULD CREATE A
RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE HIGHS RANGE FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40F.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT IN DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT (PWAT'S AROUND 0.75") WITH
RATHER WEAK FORCING MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND THUS A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR THE REGION. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TOP OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL COLUMN COULD AID IN
DEVELOPING IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIMITING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 50S, SOME NORTHERN SPOTS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S. DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE SURFACE LOW INCHES CLOSER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURGING MOISTURE AND DEEP ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING, BRINGING THE START OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THE MID WEEK. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH A COUPLE DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
A WEALTH OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. PWAT'S SURGE TO ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL AS INDICATED IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, STRONG/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINTAINS
ITSELF, AND THE NOSE OF AN INTENSE 55-65 KT LLJ MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING DEPARTS BEFORE CLEARING THE CWA DURING THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT IS FAIRLY HIGH
WITH LREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF
BETWEEN 45-60% ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AS
INDICATED IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS
RIGHT NOW INDICATE A NEAR REPEAT PATTERN TO TUESDAY FOR THE LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US, LEADING TO
POTENTIAL WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES. SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST, BUT THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN
IS SIMILAR ACROSS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
NORTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL PREVENT
ANY FOG CONCERNS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE OUT OF THE EAST LATE
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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