627
FXUS62 KCAE 291111
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
611 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST THOUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST, AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
BEGIN BRINGING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INLAND BY TONIGHT. IT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH THOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY KIND OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT
WOULD BE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC/GA, JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE CHILLY
THOUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY TONIGHT, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COOLING, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES READINGS AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AND MID-30S IN THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY WITH CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD
OF IT.
- MAJORITY OF MONDAY HAS TRENDED DRY UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHEN RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SHOULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE IT FINALLY STALLS OUT OFF THE COAST BY THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRIVES PWAT'S TO NEAR 1"
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASED WAA AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MORNING MAY DRIVE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A
COUPLE MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY, BUT IN GENERAL CAM SUPPORT FOR COVERAGE
GREATER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS LOW. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN FA COULD CREATE A
RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WHERE HIGHS RANGE FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NW TO THE MID 60S SE. OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40F.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORT IN DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT (PWAT'S AROUND 0.75") WITH
RATHER WEAK FORCING MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND THUS A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
DAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST NEAR THE REGION. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TOP OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL COLUMN COULD AID IN
DEVELOPING IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIMITING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOW TO
MID 50S, SOME NORTHERN SPOTS COULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S. DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE SURFACE LOW INCHES CLOSER
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURGING MOISTURE AND DEEP ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASING, BRINGING THE START OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THE MID WEEK. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH A COUPLE DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
A WEALTH OF FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. PWAT'S SURGE TO ABOVE 200% OF NORMAL AS INDICATED IN
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF, STRONG/DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINTAINS
ITSELF, AND THE NOSE OF AN INTENSE 55-65 KT LLJ MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO AT
TIMES HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIGHTEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING DEPARTS BEFORE CLEARING THE CWA DURING THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN A NEEDED SOAKING RAINFALL EVENT IS FAIRLY HIGH
WITH LREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF QPF
BETWEEN 45-60% ACROSS THE AREA. WITH RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER MUCH OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE, IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE FILLS BACK IN AS
INDICATED IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING BACK DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH THURSDAY IS
TRENDING A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS
RIGHT NOW INDICATE A NEAR REPEAT PATTERN TO TUESDAY FOR THE LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US, LEADING TO
POTENTIAL WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES. SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST, BUT THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN
IS SIMILAR ACROSS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGES MOVES
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, BUT
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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