259
FXUS62 KCAE 291723
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1223 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CONTINUED COOL WITH SOME INCREASING MOISTURE TONIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING SHORTWAVE HAVE SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. THE AIR MASS REMAINS
QUITE DRY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS AROUND 0.25" AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY WITH
SUNSHINE AFTER A COLD START AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TONIGHT: A SURGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK OVER THE REGION. PWATS RISE TO
AROUND 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY AROUND
-25C SURGE TO AROUND +4C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA BUT DO EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND PUSH INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT AND HIGHER AND MID
CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO MID 30S IN THE CSRA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN MOVING IN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BE TRIGGERED BY WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT, THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LARGE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE MID-60S. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCHES
AT THE START OF THE DAY, INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF RAPIDLY
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CAROLINA. IT'LL BE A
COOLER AND MAINLY CLOUDY DAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNLIKELY AFTER NIGHTFALL. RAIN CHANCES RISE QUICKLY AT
NIGHT AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL END
UP IN THE 50S, FALLING INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S AT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING, ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT.
- COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY EMERGE FROM THE GULF ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE FA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED,
QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS BEING FASTER THAN THE EURO. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY EVENING. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES, POTENTIALLY CAUSING NUISANCE FLOODING BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN COOL AND DRY
WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY EMERGE
FROM THE GULF NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING
MORE EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
A PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD BEGIN GIVING WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WITH VFR CIGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND 5KFT BY 12Z. BEYOND 12Z SOME
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO KEEPING VFR CIGS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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