932
FXUS62 KCAE 300043
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
743 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE STEADILY PUSHING IN ALOFT, WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW.
CLOUD COVER IS QUICKLY RETURNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP ALOFT
BETWEEN 850-500MB. DRY SURFACE AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED BUT AN
OVERCAST SHIELD OF STRATUS AROUND 5K FEET IS NOW OVERSPREADING. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOCKED IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL NOTABLY IMPACT
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. SO DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE MID-
10'S, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY
SNEAK INTO THE 30'S. THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT, THICK, AND
WIDESPREAD THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE, SO TRENDING THIS FORECAST MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMEST OF THE DISTRIBUTION.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN MOVING IN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BE TRIGGERED BY WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT, THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A LARGE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE MID-60S. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND
THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCHES
AT THE START OF THE DAY, INCREASING QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF RAPIDLY
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CAROLINA. IT'LL BE A
COOLER AND MAINLY CLOUDY DAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNLIKELY AFTER NIGHTFALL. RAIN CHANCES RISE QUICKLY AT
NIGHT AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL END
UP IN THE 50S, FALLING INTO THE MID-30S TO MID-40S AT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY MORNING, ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT.
- COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY EMERGE FROM THE GULF ON FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE FA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED,
QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS BEING FASTER THAN THE EURO. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENDING BY EVENING. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES, POTENTIALLY CAUSING NUISANCE FLOODING BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN COOL AND DRY
WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY EMERGE
FROM THE GULF NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH CIGS GENERALLY LOW-END VFR AROUND 3.5-5KFT MSL. IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW SITES BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THROUGH 12Z. SUNDAY, SOME GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SREF IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING MID TO LATE
MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLE -SHRA MOVE INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A PREVAILING E/NE DIRECTION. WINDS THEN BECOMING
WLY/NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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