367
FXUS62 KCAE 300559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK
IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY TAKE
AIM AT THE REGION TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALL THIS WILL DO IS BEGIN TO
BRING SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP THROUGH THE 20S, WHILE SOME LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT, WITH MANY AREAS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
AREAS THAT SEE COME CLEARING FOR PERIODS THOUGH WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 30S BEFORE REBOUNDING WITH THE RETURN OF CLOUDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, PWAT VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE, TOPPING OUT A LITTLE OVER AN INCH.
GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BLEND GENERALLY GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY
CHANCE POPS THERE. RAINFALL CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER THE FURTHER
EAST YOU GO AS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY QUITE A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST. WESTERN
AREAS WILL SEE MUCH MORE CLOUD OVER AND BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST HIGHS CLIMB
TO THE MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY MONDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE QUICKLY
DURING THE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION, BRINGING
COOL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AIDING IN DEVELOPING IN-
SITU WEDGE CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
NORTHERN SPOTS TOWARD THE UPPER 40S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS FROM THE
WEST WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. PWAT'S
REMAIN NEAR 1" MUCH OF THE DAY BUT A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING
SHOULD BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS THE LOW AND TROUGH
APPROACH. RAIN MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING BUT
FORCING REALLY RAMPS UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA FROM THE TROUGH, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: AT THE START OF THE DAY, THE SURFACE
LOW SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE FA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
ENTERING THE REGION AS WELL. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT, A ROBUST
50-60 KT LLJ, AND PVA FROM THE TROUGH AID IN BRINGING SURGING
PWAT'S UPWARDS OF 1.50-1.75" TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FA BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1"+
RAINFALL EVENT WHERE THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS MULTIPLE MEMBERS
SHOWING SPOTS TOWARD 1.5-2". WITH THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS
THE REGION HAS SEEN, 6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
3-4" THUS FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ARE LOW BUT SOME NUISANCE
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF THIS
RAINFALL. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, FORCING BEGINS MOVING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BEFORE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE, IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S COULD BE SEEN DEPENDING WHEN RAIN CLEARS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RETURN TOWARD THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY FORM IN THE GULF, BRINGING BACK RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LATE WEEK.
SOLID AGREEMENT IS SEEN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
LIKELY BUILDS IN BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, BRINGING BACK COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY CREEP BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. TO
ROUND OUT THE WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US, BRINGING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING MOISTURE. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, GFS,
AND CANADIAN SHOW A DEGREE OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT NOTEWORTHY TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
IN GENERAL, THE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY,
WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT, WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVERNIGHT, SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS
SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA, BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO AGS/DNL. THOSE SHOULD
REMAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR STRATUS TOWARDS
SUNRISE. ALL REMAINING SITES WILL SEE STRATUS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, WITH
SOME SCATTERED BASES BELOW 3KFT STILL POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. COVERAGE MAY REMAIN LIMITED, AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED
PROB30 FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LOW END VFR CEILINGS AT ALL BUT OGB AS
THE FRONT MOVES IN THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE TURNING MORE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND
5 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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