290
FXUS62 KCAE 301729
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY TAKE AIM AT THE REGION TO END
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TN VALLEY IS DRIVING A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND AN INCH
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES OF RAIN
BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND UPPER CSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES
WERE SLOW TO RISE EARLIER DUE TO CLOUD COVER BUT SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
SURGE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ALREADY OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS WHILE THE WESTERN MIDLANDS REMAIN COLD UNDER CLOUD
COVER WITH MID 40S AT NEWBERRY. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH A LOW (10 TO 20 PERCENT) RISK
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE
TOWARDS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
- SKIES CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION PUSHING COLD, DRY AIR DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
IN A CLASSIC IN-SITU WEDGE SETUP. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY, A BIT
OF DRIZZLE OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
GULF RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND ENDS UP NEAR OR OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY AIDED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND A ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE THE FORECASTS IS CALLING FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW
THOUGH SOME MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SKIES CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN END UP IN THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID-30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY SUNNY BUT COOL ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRING COOL, DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PASS
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY PROMOTING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE FA, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE
RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IS LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS AS MUCH OF THE
RAIN MAY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THEM. EARLIER MVFR CIGS HAVE
ERODED AND VFR CIGS AROUND 5KFT TO 10KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
THAT WILL BE INCLUDED IN A PROB30 GROUP ALL BUT OGB. GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS,
FAVORING AGS/DNL, 12Z-16Z TIME FRAME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
SO NOT INCLUDING IN THIS FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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