647
FXUS62 KCAE 302343
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
643 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY TAKE AIM AT THE REGION TO END
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS
THIS EVENING, WITH MINIMAL QPF OR RATES. THIS WILL PUSH EAST
THIS EVENING BUT STEADILY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER,
PUSHING SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND FLIPPING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IT IS NOT A TERRIBLY STRONG FRONT,
SO THE TEMP ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND IT WILL BE
QUITE INCONSEQUENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOLER AND DRIER ON MONDAY WITH A LOW (10 TO 20 PERCENT) RISK
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE
TOWARDS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
- SKIES CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION PUSHING COLD, DRY AIR DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
IN A CLASSIC IN-SITU WEDGE SETUP. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY, A BIT
OF DRIZZLE OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
GULF RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEAST AND ENDS UP NEAR OR OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY AIDED BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND A ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE THE FORECASTS IS CALLING FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW
THOUGH SOME MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCATIONS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SKIES CLEAR OUT AT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN END UP IN THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID-30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- MAINLY SUNNY BUT COOL ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY BRING COOL, DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FA. THE ANTICYCLONE WILL PASS
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY PROMOTING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE FA, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE
RAINFALL TO CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
IS LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO
PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT,
THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT OGB.
PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY END AFTER 07Z-09Z WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING. GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AT AGS/DNL IN THE 12Z-16Z TIME FRAME MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
THE TERMINALS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR TOMORROW.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES, THEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
MORE NELY BY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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