317
FXUS62 KCAE 010550
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1250 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY TAKE AIM AT
THE REGION TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.
- COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, THEN INCREASE IN
RAIN POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA. BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PUSH IN BY
SUNRISE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START OFF THE DAY, SETTING UP A WEDGE TYPE FLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA AND WITH THE WEDGE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, EXPECT A RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN RAINFALL
POTENTIAL TO BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA, ENDING UP NEAR OR OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP OF THE SURFACE
WEDGE, AND DUE TO THIS, RAINFALL CLOUD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
AT TIMES DURING THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN,
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-30S NORTH TO THE MID-40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN EXITS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: RAIN IS VERY LIKELY (>90%) TO BE ONGOING
TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, BUT THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA,
EXPECT THE RAIN TO END FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ENSEMBLES
ARE INDICATING A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE (60-70%) OF SEEING MORE THAN
1" OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME ALL IT'S ALL SAID
AND DONE. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL. REGARDLESS, THE
ENTIRE AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MONDAY, BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
CHILLY TEMPS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
GOOD CHANCE (>70%) OF DROPPING TO, OR BELOW, THE FREEZING MARK.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION, LEADING TO A DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH TEMPS FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO KEEP THE WEATHER
ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVER TOWARD THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WARM UP FOR
THURSDAY, WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. DETAILS ON TIMING STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT
AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION STILL APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOWFLAKES, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF THERE WERE ANY SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN, IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE VERY NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, THE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
SETTING UP SOME WEDGE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. HOWEVER MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS
THROUGH 08Z, THEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER TOP OF THE
SURFACE WEDGE WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO THE AREA AFTER 00Z, WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADING THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
02-06Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AROUND WHEN THE ONSET OF
THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE
REPLACED WITH PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH LATER UPDATES. CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO MVFR AND
SHOULD REACH IFR AT SOME POINT TOWARDS OR AFTER 06Z.
WINDS TONIGHT TURNING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH SUNRISE,
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, THEN BETWEEN 5-10 THROUGH
THE DAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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