261
FXUS62 KCAE 020156
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
856 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASING THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE REGION TO END
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
A RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR BY
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA, ENDING UP
NEAR OR OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH A STRONG 850 JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY,
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1.25"-1.5" RANGE. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP FORCE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH RAINFALL LIKELY BECOMING MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AT OR AROUND 2 AM, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR, GENERALLY ALONG I-20ISH, WHERE
SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY SETUP TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS
IS WHERE THE WEDGE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENT,
AND IS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.75"-1.5" ARE EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON, WITH 1.5"-2" OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG AN AXIS
STRETCHING FROM AUGUSTA TO SUMTER. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
- THE RAIN TAPERS OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW THOUGH SOME
MINOR OR NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOWARDS EVENING, THOUGH SOME OF THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN SPOTS BEFORE
A COOL, DRY AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE FA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL QUICKLY AT NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT FULLY CLEAR OUT. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO THE MID-30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BUT MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF
RAIN FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS STORM SYSTEM CAN CLEAR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY AFTER
-RA BEGINS AT EACH TERMINAL, GENERALLY BETWEEN 3Z-5Z, WITH
FURTHER DECREASES IN CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR AND LIFR CATEGORIES.
HEAVIER RA AT TIMES MAY RESULT IN VSBYS LESS THAN 2 SM. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AT OR AROUND 18Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUAL INCREASES IN CIGS AND RESTRICTIONS
EASING BACK TO VFR BY 00Z. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
NLY/NELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING WLY AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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