883
FXUS62 KCAE 021135
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS
THIS STORM MOVES THROUGH, THEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE REGION TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- RAIN END THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING AT
DAYBREAK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND TOWARDS THE
CAROLINA COASTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.50-1.00 INCHES COULD OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH NOON, WITH
SOME MINOR NUISANCE ROADWAY FLOODING POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING RAINFALL QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 18Z, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
GO CALM, SO EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL QUICKLY AT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY. FORECAST LOWS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT WITH
THURSDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WELL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
THE BASE OF AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE COMBINED WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES,
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TO END THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS CONTINUE DUE TO CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN LOOKING LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM IS SETTING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S SYSTEM, ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH RAIN APPROACHING EARLY ON FRIDAY, WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED TO WARM MUCH, IF AT ALL, DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE
(20-30%) OF MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE SOME AFTER THE
FRIDAY SYSTEM, BUT REMAIN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS RAINFALL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY, ALONG WITH THE LOW
CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BE IFR TO START OFF, AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT A PERIOD LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS 18Z, WITH SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS BACK INTO MVFR
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND POSSIBLE
SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AFTER 00Z THROUGH
06Z. GUIDANCE APPEARS SPLIT NOW IN REGARDS TO WHETHER CLEARING
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT, WITH LAMP SHOWING A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS
AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE GFS/NAM SHOWING VFR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ELECTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY THIS MORNING, THEN
BEGIN TO TURN MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES
EAST AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG LOW, ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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