038
FXUS62 KCAE 021728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1228 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN IS GRADUALLY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
- CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ALONG,
WITH SOME REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH FORCING MOVING EASTWARD ALONG WITH IT. RAINFALL HAS QUICKLY
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED, LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND ACROSS THE AREA AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALOFT AND HELPS
REDEVELOP A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. DOUBT THAT TEMPS ARE GONNA GET
MUCH WARMER THAN 50F ACROSS THE AREA AS IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
WE SEE SUFFICIENT CLEARING PRIOR TO THE SUN BEGINNING TO SET,
BUT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, COULD SEE ENOUGH
CLEARING TO GET ABOVE 50F. TONIGHT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL CLOUD COVER CASTING UNCERTAINTY ON THE
OVERALL FORECAST. HREF AND REFS PROBABILITIES FOR LOW CLOUDS ARE
>50% ACROSS THE CSRA, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 1A AND 7A. SO EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LOT WARMER THERE THAN ELSEWHERE, WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR AND
STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS REDEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. IT SHOULD BE WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CSRA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S
TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FA ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, THOUGH TIMING MAY BE
LATER IN THE DAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN DIVERGENT REGARDING THE WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCATTERING AND LIFTING TO MVFR FOR SOME OF THE NIGHT.
VFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN TO EVERYONE LATE IN THIS PERIOD, BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXIST PRIOR TO THAT.
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR AT ALL SITES AS
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THE AREA. VERY DRY
AIR,IN THE FORM OF PWS BELOW HALF AN INCH, IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA QUICKLY TODAY AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM DRIVING THIS
MOVES EASTWARD QUICKLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE
RESTRICTIONS ARE GOING TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY AREN'T VERY
STRONG AT ANY ONE TIME, LEAVING A LOT TO BE DESIRED FROM A
CLEARING PERSPECTIVE. THERE IS A TON OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN WE HAD PLENTY OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.
COMBINE THAT WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND DRY
AIR ALOFT AND THIS FAVORS RESTRICTIONS HANGING ON LONGER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WILL FORECAST THIS, USING TEMPO GROUPS AND
PREDOMINANT GROUPS TO GET THE MESSAGE ACROSS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MIDLANDS SITES COULD SEE RESTRICTIONS LIFT BY LATE TONIGHT, WITH
THE AUGUSTA SITES SEEING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.
REGARDLESS, THE TAFS WILL HAVE CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN THEM FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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