966
FXUS62 KCAE 030049
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION AS A QUICK MOVING
LOW EJECTS NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE WEST WITH NOTABLE DRY AIR NOW PUSHING IN ABOVE THE
RESIDUAL WEDGE INVERSION. WITH SOME DIURNAL COOLING NOW, A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIKELY BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
DRY AIR CAN CLEAR OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE DRY ADVECTION CLEARS THINGS
OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE UPPER 20S.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. IT SHOULD BE WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE CSRA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S
TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FA ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE GULF. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, THOUGH TIMING MAY BE
LATER IN THE DAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN DIVERGENT REGARDING THE WEATHER DURING THE
WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR
EVERYWHERE IS ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR AT MOST SITES WITH A
FEW BREAKING OUT TO VFR. SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATES MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT, WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY AT AGS/DNL. ADDITIONALLY, AGS/DNL MAY HOLD ONTO CIG
RESTRICTIONS LONGER THAN THE OTHER TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE
MOST OTHERS GRADUALLY CLEAR BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH A NWLY
COMPONENT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE NELY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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