952
FXUS62 KCAE 030544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1244 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING: LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR AN
INVERSION WILL KEEP STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO
MUCH FURTHER THROUGH SUNRISE. MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN AREAS THAT KEEP CLOUDS IN. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGION WHERE SOME DRIER AIR COULD
MAKE IN TOWARDS MORNING, HELPING TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT THERE. IN
THAT LOCATION, MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S
COULD OCCUR.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE REGION. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO FINALLY BE THINNING AND SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO SOME SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN BEFORE THE DAY IS OVER. COLD ADVECTION
THOUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND 50 NORTH, TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH SOMEWHAT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW BEGIN MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE GULF STATES AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR RAINFALL TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE 1.3-1.6" RANGE,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE (50-70%) OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AS
WELL AS LREF CLUSTERS. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70-90%) THAT
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE ONGOING
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, SO IT IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE TOO MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A SHARPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WHICH COULD AID IN PUSHING OUT THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERIODIC MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL RETURN
TO VFR EVERYWHERE IS ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE SHOWING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS ACROSS ALL TAF
LOCATIONS BY ISSUANCE TIME. STRATUS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MAINLY LOW END MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH THE MIDLANDS OF SC SITES (CAE/CUB/OGB) SEEING CEILINGS RISE
BACK TO VFR AROUND 15Z, WHILE THE CSRA SITES (AGS/DNL) WILL HOLD
ON TO MVFR THROUGH 17Z BEFORE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IS THE MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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