733
FXUS62 KCAE 031113
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
613 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION.
DAY STARTS OFF WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUD COVER DUE TO
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNING BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, BUT MAY HOLD ON UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CSRA. SO EVENTUALLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BE SEEN BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THOUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MORNING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY FROM AROUND 50 NORTH, TO THE MIDDLE 50S
SOUTH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH SOMEWHAT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DUE TO MUCH
LESS CLOUDS, DRY AIR, AND LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW BEGIN MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON THURSDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE GULF STATES AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR RAINFALL TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE 1.3-1.6" RANGE,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER RAIN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATELY HIGH CHANCE (50-70%) OF
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODELS AS
WELL AS LREF CLUSTERS. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70-90%) THAT
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN WITH THE ONGOING
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, SO IT IS UNLIKELY TO MOVE TOO MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A SHARPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WHICH COULD AID IN PUSHING OUT THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
A RETURN TO VFR OCCURS.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS
ALL TAF LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY RISING AND
BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT SOME THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MIDLANDS SITES OF
CAE/CUB NEAR ISSUANCE TIME, THEN AT OGB BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
AND FINALLY INTO THE CSRA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVERS/LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY IN THE DAY, THEN BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING. AS LOW-LEVELS DECOUPLE TONIGHT,
WIND SHOULD GO CALM AT ALL SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page