424
FXUS62 KCAE 031759
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH IT FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS IN PLACE,
HELPING TO LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INVERSION. FLOW IS QUITE LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN, SO THERE IS LITTLE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS INVERSION WILL BREAK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS LOCKED IN, AND THE
TEMPERATURES QUITE CHILLY. WE ARE ALREADY CAREENING TOWARDS PEAK
HEATING, SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES GET WARMER THAN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY. TONIGHT, THINGS ARE TRICKY AGAIN AS
THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN. HRRR/RAP BUFKIT AND
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL HANG
ON FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN
MIDLANDS. THIS MAKES IT TOUGH TO FORECAST TEMPS, AS THE LAYER OF
CLOUDS REALLY IS NOT THAT THICK AND COULD BREAK ANY TIME
OVERNIGHT. WHERE IT DOES BREAK, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. WHERE CLOUDS HOLD, TEMPS LIKELY WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. ADJUSTED THE MINT AWAY FROM THE NBM TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE OR
WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK. ULTIMATELY, ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY,
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET, COOL, CLOUDY, AND
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY WHILE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH. ANY RAIN THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN AROUND 20% IN THE CSRA AND LOWER IN THE
MIDLANDS. COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID-50S.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH ENS MEAN PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IN
SITU WEDGING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (~10%) FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC BORDER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INDICATED
BY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE CWA, FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN DEVELOPING WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 50-60%
CHANCE OF TOTAL RAIN ABOVE AN INCH. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
10-20% CHANCE OF 3 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS BUT 3 INCH AMOUNTS
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT IN PLACE BASED ON LREF
MEAN. IN GENERAL, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWERING CHANCES
FOR RAIN EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE TENTH
PERCENTILE WITH EC EFI HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
FOR ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT THE AGS/DNL SITES
FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS, WITH VFR CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO
HANG AROUND AT THE OTHER SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. THE CLOUDS
REALLY DIDN'T BUDGE LAST NIGHT, REMAINING LOCKED IN AS THE DRY
AIR ALOFT PUSHED IN AND HELPED REINFORCE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS AT CAE/CUB/OGB
BUT REMAIN STUCK IN THE MVFR RANGE AT THE AUGUSTA SITES.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS, REGARDLESS OF RESTRICTIONS, TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT MVFR CIGS COULD BE IN AT THE AUGUSTA SITES UNTIL
THE CLOUDS ACTUALLY BREAK (PROBABLY SOMETIME LATE IN THIS PERIOD
ON THURSDAY). SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE TAFS PRETTY MUCH
UNCHANGED THROUGH SOMETIME TONIGHT, AND THEN SLOWLY SHOW A
CLEARING TREND AS WE GET INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT, SO EXPECTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
MIX OUT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA TOMORROW
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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