010
FXUS62 KCAE 040042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO MIX OUT WHICH MAY LEAD
TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND A
THREAT OF PATCHY FOG. HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL HELP PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE LOW 30S, WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY IN TO THE UPPER 20S.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING OVER THE
REGION WE EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE HRRR AND
LAMP ADD CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOWING POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
- RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY WHILE UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RIDGE INTO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH. ANY RAIN THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN AROUND 20% IN THE CSRA AND LOWER IN THE
MIDLANDS. COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID-50S.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH ENS MEAN PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IN
SITU WEDGING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (~10%) FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC BORDER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INDICATED
BY A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE CWA, FRIDAY. WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVIER
RAIN DEVELOPING WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 50-60%
CHANCE OF TOTAL RAIN ABOVE AN INCH. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
10-20% CHANCE OF 3 INCHES OR MORE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS BUT 3 INCH AMOUNTS
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH A TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT IN PLACE BASED ON LREF
MEAN. IN GENERAL, BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWERING CHANCES
FOR RAIN EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NAEFS MEAN INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BELOW THE TENTH
PERCENTILE WITH EC EFI HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA
FOR ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING, GIVING WAY TO VFR
CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES. PERIODS OF FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THE REST OF THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS ARE WORKING INTO THE AREA AND DRY
AIR FINALLY SEEMS TO BE BREAKING DOWN THE PESKY LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AS CAE HAS HAD PERIODS OF SCT CLOUDS INSTEAD OF BKN TO OVC.
THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, THOUGH IT REMAINS MORE
LOCKED IN NEAR AGS/DNL AND OGB. OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR
CALM AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN SHOWING THIS DECK ALMOST
ERODING FULLY, ALLOWING FOR POTENTIAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME MORE STRATUS. THIS WILL LARGELY BE
DEPENDENT ON IF THE CURRENT LOW DECK DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT 6-8
HOURS OR SO BUT WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, THIS IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY. DUE TO THIS I HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES THAT CLEAR AROUND
13-15Z. AFTER THIS, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RAMP UP AND A BKN TO
OVC MID LEVEL DECK SHOULD MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH 4-7 KT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ANY RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY AS RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. MORE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE POSSIBLE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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