640
FXUS62 KCAE 041129
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
- DRY AND COOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH RAIN SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY, PATCHY FOG IS BEING REPORTED AS OF 6 AM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE FOG OCCURRING NEAR LAKES
AND RIVERS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN A MILE IN
SOME LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND
HEATING BEGINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO AND
WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
AIDED BY AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TROUGH KEEPS FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY, BUT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO BRING SOME FORCING TO
THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME RAIN POSSIBLY
REACHING THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THEREFORE,
THIS FORECASTER IS NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN RAIN OCCURRING, BUT
HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH A PEAK OF ABOUT
25% CHANCE IN THE LOWER CSRA, WHERE FORCING DOES LOOK A LITTLE
BETTER. THAT SAID, IF ANY RAIN DOES FALL IN THE AFTERNOON, I
EXPECT IT TO BE LIGHT. AS BETTER FORCING MOVES IN OVERNIGHT,
MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COOL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE SATURDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
A COLD BUT MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDING INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ENSEMBLE PWATS WILL BE 175-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE
LOW LEVEL WEDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND
REINFORCING THE DEVELOPING WEDGE WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS, WITH
POSSIBLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY. ANY WINTER WEATHER
CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED NORTH OF OUR AREA IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NC, ALTHOUGH EXPECTING A COLD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY SHIFT A BIT
SOUTH FAVORING THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE IS A 50% OR HIGHER CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AN
INCH OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A 20-30% CHANCE OF SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND LOWER CSRA TO RECEIVE 3
INCHES OF RAIN. MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AND STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER
50S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
- CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY THEN DRIER WEATHER INTO
MID WEEK
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO FEED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WITH WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHILE THE WEAK WEDGE REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE. CHANCES OF RAIN LOWER ON MONDAY BUT CANNOT BE ELIMINATED
WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. RAINFALL TOTAL NOT EXPECTED NEAR AS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD
COMPARED TO FRI/SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. NAEFS MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EC EFI
HINTING AT ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES SO IT APPEARS THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. THEN, RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MOVE INTO AREA LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED AT THE TERMINALS, WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1SM AT TIMES. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, ROUGHLY BY 14Z OR
SO. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR LATE. IN
ADDITION, RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT
04Z-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS RAIN FALLS OVER THE AREA. MORE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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