838
FXUS62 KCAE 041757
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA TODAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
ANY FOG THAT WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS QUICKLY LIFTED AS WE HAVE GONE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM. AN EXTENDED, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. AHEAD OF THIS, A STRONG, ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK EXISTS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WE ARE
WITHIN THE BROAD, RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIFT NOTED AS A RESULT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
ARE INCREASING TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS. EXPECTING THESE LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS, BRINGING LIGHT QPF TOTALS
TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20. I'D EXPECT THIS RAIN
TO BE QUITE LIGHT AS PWS ARE BELOW 1" BUT OBS IN GEORGIA SHOW
THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND, SO IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL
MEASURE. HIGHS TODAY HAD TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE NBM. CLOUD
COVER IS QUITE THICK ALREADY WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
EXPECTED TO AID IN KEEPING US COOL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY, THAT IS CURRENTLY EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE BAST OF THE TROUGH, SHOULD
RACE NORTHEASTWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL RE-AMPLIFY
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY 850 HPA FLOW
INCREASES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL
RIGHT ALONG THE AXIS THE EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK DID - PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF I20. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
LOOK FOR TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
-RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, IT SITU WEDGING WILL LIKELY BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH THE TOTALS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US TO
BE OUT OF PHASE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION, KEEPING THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE HREF
MEAN HAS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THUS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PWATS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
GEFS MEAN SHOWING AROUND 200% OF NORMAL SO WHILE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AND DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
A BIT DRIER AIR LIKELY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FORCING LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BUT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED VORTICITY, AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY,
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH OF I-20.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR NEXT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, WITH LREF PWAT PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH INCREASING TO AROUND 80% MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH EC EFI CONTINUING
TO HINT AT ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES SO IT APPEARS THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA, EVEN IF IT IS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
ANY IFR OR LIFR FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT AND WAS STILL
A PROBLEM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS
BLANKETED THE TAF SITES, WITH THIS REMAINING VFR FOR THE MOST
PART. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PUSHING TOWARDS OGB/AGS/DNL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
EACH SITE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE
03Z-06Z RANGE ACROSS THE REGION AS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND
BETTER LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL, BUT CEILING RESTRICTIONS LOOK QUITE ROBUST. EXPECT A
QUICK DESCENT FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT LEAST AT AGS, DNL, AND OGB
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT CAE AND CUB SEE LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT AT LEAST IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THIS PERIOD, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.
VIS FROM RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPROVE A BIT AS WE GET TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS PERIOD BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY STILL BE HANGING
AROUND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS RAIN FALLS OVER THE AREA. MORE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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