357
FXUS62 KCAE 050140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
840 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
WARM, MOIST ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE CSRA
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.
THE STRONGEST LIFT OVERNIGHT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE UPSTATE BUT
THEN SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL SC BY DAYBREAK. DURING THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD, LOCATIONS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A THIRD OF AN INCH BUT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED SPOTS
THAT COULD RECEIVE AROUND HALF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT, KEEPING LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- COLD FRIDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
-RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, IT SITU WEDGING WILL LIKELY BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR RAIN CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
DOWN SOMEWHAT WITH THE TOTALS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
A NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US TO
BE OUT OF PHASE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE ADVECTION, KEEPING THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE HREF
MEAN HAS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THUS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PWATS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
GEFS MEAN SHOWING AROUND 200% OF NORMAL SO WHILE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT RAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AND DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
A BIT DRIER AIR LIKELY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY BUT
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FORCING LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED BUT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED VORTICITY, AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY,
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH OF I-20.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR NEXT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, WITH LREF PWAT PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN A
HALF INCH INCREASING TO AROUND 80% MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA WITH EC EFI CONTINUING
TO HINT AT ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES SO IT APPEARS THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COOL PATTERN WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME BUT CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWER
TONIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
VFR CEILINGS REMAIN THIS EVENING WITH AN OVC MID LEVEL DECK
OVERSPREADING THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE NEAR
AGS/DNL/OGB. MVFR CEILINGS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 05-07Z. THIS IS ALSO WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE IN, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS WHERE
VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WINDS
TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BETWEEN 10-14Z IS
WHEN IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MODEL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING FAIRLY HIGH AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH RAIN CONTINUING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHERE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT AGS/DNL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO
INCREASE IN THESE RESTRICTIONS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES AS WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEK, BUT CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN IN
PLACE AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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