611
FXUS62 KCAE 050556
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1256 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE THREAT FOR RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER THEN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- THREAT OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE BLUE RIDGE AT THIS TIME. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPSTATE. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVES INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOOKING AT THE
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH AND HOW
WIDESPREAD RAIN WE'LL SEE WITH THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE RAIN INTACT. HOWEVER, THE
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING RATHER QUICK AND ONCE IT PASSES, SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT MIGHT CUT THE RAIN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. SO, MOST SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME RAIN WITH THIS WAVE OF PRECIP, BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT IT'LL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PULSES
TO START THE DAY. MUCH OF THIS ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL; HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTED DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY AS WELL AS HOW PERSISTENT IT WILL BE. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE SHORTWAVE PULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK IN NATURE AND THE BEST FORCING OVERALL LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE COAST, SO THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE TO ME. THE 00Z HREF
SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY (>50%) OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN
FOR THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY, BUT NOW SHOWS A
LOW CHANCE (~15%) OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THE SAME TIME.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND TONIGHT WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND
- RAINFALL TOTALS TRENDING LOWER
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KEEPING THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL AXIS A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. PWATS RANGE FROM AROUND
NORMAL IN THE NORTHWESTERN MIDLANDS TO AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. OVERALL
FORCING REMAINS WEAK SATURDAY BUT CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN, FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S. THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
- DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S. A RETURN TO A MORE DRY AND COOL PATTERN RETURNS MID
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS AROUND 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL TUE/WED
WITH 500MB FLOW GENERALLY ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WEST COAST RIDGING. EC EFI CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT ANOMALOUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA
AND HAVE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED THE TAF TERMINALS. EXPECT MORE
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE IN WITHIN BY AROUND 07Z OR SO
EVERYWHERE ALONG WITH SOME PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
GROWING CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z-18Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND AT TIMES
VARIABLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY WEEK, BUT CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE AT
LEAST PART OF SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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